the capital asset pricing model often

called CAPM for short is an investment theory that shows the relationship

between the expected return of an investment and market risk to better

understand CAPM I think it will be easier if we look at an example and how

it can be used this is the formula for CAPM and if you are of the math

persuasion then perhaps this formula makes a lot of sense but for the rest of

us let’s break it down to try to make it a bit simpler so there are only three

inputs that go into CAPM. first is the risk-free rate we’re going to use the

10-year Treasury note and as of now it’s September of 2018 the 10-year Treasury

note is about 3% next we have beta. beta looks at the relationship between our

investment and the market for our example we will use a stock so for us

beta looks at how the stock moves compared to how the stock market moves

the market by definition gets a beta of 1 so let’s use Apple stock so we can see

an actual example so apples beta is 0.99 and this is

mighty close to 1 so what does this tell us

well it tells us that Apple’s stock acts very similar to the market so if the

markets up 1% well then Apple stock will be up almost 1% more exactly it should

be up about 0.99% same is true on the downside the market goes down Apple

stock will be down just short of 1% and just to see how this impacts things

let’s throw a second stock in there right now Facebook has a beta of 1.2 so

if the market moves up or down 1% Facebook will move up or down 1.2% the

closer the beta is to 1 the more the stock moves like the market does the

final input in our formula is the expected return of the stock market now

coming up with this number isn’t always clear some research companies publish

what they expect long term market returns to be you can also use a

historical average for our case we’re going to use the average of the past 10

years which is about 9% per year ok so now we have all of our inputs our

risk-free rate is 3% beta for Apple is 0.99 and for Facebook its 1.2 and then

we have the expected market return of 9% okay so let’s plug these numbers in so

Rf is the risk-free rate so here we could plug in 3 percent this symbol here

this is the Greek symbol for beta for Apple we can replace this beta with 0.99

and we could put Facebook’s formula down here and there we will put 1.2 then in

the parenthesis we have the expected market return minus the risk-free rate

they call this the market premium for the expected market return we’re using

nine percent and for the risk-free rate it’s the same as the three percent that

we’re using over here now for those interested the horizontal bar that’s

above the R right here and here well that bar indicates that this is an

estimate so now we know we’re using an estimate of expected market return and

that will give us an estimate of the return of this asset that’s what the

lowercase a stands for and over here M that stands for the market so when we

calculate these we end up with eight point nine percent for Apple and ten

point two percent for Facebook now don’t forget the only difference

between Apple’s formula and Facebook’s formula is their individual beta so how

can this be used well one way you can use CAPM is to use it in calculating

the WACC of a company WACC is short for weighted average cost of capital and

that WACC can be used as a discount factor to value a stock in something

like discounted cash flow now technically for WACC you would use both

the cost of debt and the cost of equity CAPM can be used as the cost of equity

so for a quick illustration as to how it can be used let’s imagine that Apple and

Facebook have no debt which means that whack for both of them is the same as

CAPM let’s see how that would play out let’s imagine that we had an expected

cash flow coming from Apple in two years and let’s imagine that it is going to be

$1,000 well since cash is more valuable today than it is in let’s say the two

years well what we can do is use the results of our CAPM calculation as a

discount factor so if I’m gonna get $1,000 in two years well for Apple using

our CAPM results of eight point nine four percent we can use that as a

discount factor and we can see that that $1000 in two years is worth eight

hundred and forty two dollars and 61 cents today for Facebook if we were also

expecting a thousand dollars in two years that

be worth eight hundred twenty three dollars and forty three cents today so

in theory that’s the present value of your future cash flow expectations so

what you want to do is pay less than that today and if your expectations are

correct well the bigger the gap between what you pay today and your calculated

present value the bigger your returns will be now CAPM isn’t the only way to

calculate a discount rate or an expected rate of return there’s also something

called the arbitrage pricing theory that’s quite popular there are also a

few multi-factor models at work as well so keep in mind that CAPM is one of a

few choices not the only choice at some point in the future I’ll do similar

style videos to this on the arbitrage pricing theory and multi-factor models

and if you haven’t done so already hit the subscribe button and I appreciate

you staying with the video all the way to the end thanks and I’ll see you in the

next video

What do you think of CAPM? Do you ever use it when valuing a stock? I thought this video was important since I used it for both our Boeing (BA) Video ( https://youtu.be/wZt3Q9jDUwI ) and Caterpillar (CAT) Video ( https://youtu.be/fpbeP-Ppnec )

I'm glad you made this video. I looked up CAPM after the BA video. You make it sound so easy. Even though I know its not. Good Video!

Good Vid. I actually became a subscriber because of these investing basics videos. And i look at the stock analysis videos as great add ons to demonstrate how this stuff can be used in real life. Thanks for coming back to the basics.

great educational content and stock analysis on this channel – love it

Can you do an explanation of DCF model for your next video? thank you.

Thank you! All the other videos on this are confusing

Thank you! The link between CAPM and a DCF model now makes sense.

Great explanations thank you

When can we watch your Videos about Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Multi Factor Models

Love the Boston Accent! I subscribed, helped a lot with my Finance Final!

Is beta = Risk ?

Perfectly explained thank you!

very useful, thanks a lot.

Very helpful, thanks!

pause it 1 sec in

Chart at 1:00 to 1:20 is wrong. Assumes AAPL and Market have a correlation of 1.0, not a beta of 1.0 To find the correlation, use the square root of the r-squared from the regression equation. That number will be significantly less than 1.0, so the animation shown is very misleading. AAPL has a higher sd than Market.

garbage

trash

You say we can use the CAPM as the cost of equity. But surely the risk free rate is the cost of equity?

Short and crisp!

Thanks! It's helpful!

Just ran into this channel. Great video, I love how you broke down the formula and explained it clearly. I would love a video about arbitrage pricing theory and multi factor models. Thanks!

So easy to understand. Thanks

Great material đź™‚

Thank you so much for sharing this useful data ! Greatly appreciated.

Perfect!!. Thank you

so those returns are all annually. always use annually? or see different case? if you have an example for other frequency? thanks!

Wouldnâ€™t Appleâ€™s return be 9.9%?I mean there was only a .3 difference in there Beta figures.Why are the difference in returns 1.3%?

Does it ever make sense to customize the risk-free rate for our particular situation? For example, if you're in debt and the interest rate is higher than the yield for 10-year bonds?

Hi great vid man, 2 questions…where did you get the $1000 dollars from as your expected cash flow? and why would you expect $1000 in 2 years?

Mark Baum is that you?

thanks for hte great video!!!

great!